*The Bank of Canada should uphold its conditional pledge to keep its key policy rate at 0.25% until July but should then embark on sharp rate hikes of 50 basis points at every announcement date until mid-2011, says an analysis prepared for the CD Howe Institute.

 

OTTAWA — Amid warnings about “reckless” housing speculation and overextended homebuyers, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Tuesday the federal government would make it tougher for people to get a mortgage.

 

He said at a Tuesday morning media conference that Ottawa would require all borrowers meet standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if the buyer wants a variable rate mortgage. This measure would apply to all first-time buyers. Homeowners with insured mortgages are not affected, unless they choose at a later date to extend the amortization or look to refinance.

 

Other rule changes unveiled would affect people looking to refinance their mortgages — lowering the maximum amount that can be withdrawn to 90% from 95% — and place a 20% minimum down payment for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties. This would affect people looking to buy condo units or duplexes for rental income. Previously, only a 5% down payment was required.

 

But Mr. Flaherty said the changes, to take affect April 19, were not meant to stop a possible housing bubble, as some warned was upon us unless Ottawa was prepared to act.

 

“There’s no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we’re taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps today to help prevent one,” Mr. Flaherty said.

 

The existing home sale market has been on a tear, largely powered by historic low rates. Last April, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark policy rate to 0.25% and pledged to keep it there until this July in order to stoke economic growth.

 

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at TD Securities, said the Canadian housing market should continue on a “turbo-charge” ride until the April 19 implementation date, “then cool sharply, and then resume a more modest rate of ascent. In theory, home prices should take a mild hit immediately, as the number of Canadians capable of financing a home will dip slightly. The market’s expectation for rate hikes should be scaled back modestly as housing slows and the need to address it via monetary policy fades.”

 

Mr. Lascelles added the move will likely add to Canada’s already sterling reputation among currency and bond traders that the country “gets it” in terms of financial regulation.

 

Mr. Flaherty said the measures would “have some stabilizing effect on the housing market. And stability is a good thing.”

 

He said the changes should still make housing affordable for first-time homebuyers. His main concern, he added, was that Canadians were at risk of overextending themselves as interest rates are at historic lows and are bound to climb.

 

“This will help Canadians prepare for higher interest rates. One must always guard against the temptation take on more financial risk simply because interest rates are lower.”

 

Further, he said data emerged indicating people were engaging in “reckless speculation” by buying multiple condo units and not choosing to live in them. As a result, the Minister decided to move before the March 4 budget, when many people speculated changes might be introduced.

 

“We are encouraging people to build equity [in their home] over time, using home ownership as an effective way to save – rather than as a vehicle for quick cash,” he said.

 

The changes “will discourage the kind of reckless real estate speculation that could drive prices to unsustainable levels which does not serve Canadian homebuyers.”

 

The decision to adopt new mortgage rules emerged after nearly a week of dire warnings from prominent Canadians — such as money manager Stephen Jarislowsky and former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge — that the housing market was on the verge of possible trouble, as price increases were not sustainable and present mortgage rules were too lax.

 

Frank Techar, president of personal and commercial banking at Bank of Montreal, said the bank supports Ottawa’s moves, although adding the lender does not believe the country faces a housing bubble.

 

“Given the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent run-up in housing prices in some markets across Canada, the measures announced today are prudent,” Mr. Techar said in a statement.

 

He said the bank “for several months now” has been encouraging Canadians to stress test their financial budget using a mortgage payment based on a higher interest rate.

 

The Department of Finance in 2008 said Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. would limit amortizations to 35 years and offer loan insurance on only 95% of the loan value. The government’s housing agency had offered mortgage insurance on loans worth as much as 100% of the home value and amortization periods of as many as 40 years since 2006.

 

Homebuyers with a down payment of less than 20% of the property’s value are required to obtain government-backed insurance in exchange for financing.

 

Canadian home prices and resales will grow to records this year, boosted by low interest rates, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a report last week. Canadian new home prices rose 0.4% in December from November, the sixth straight gain, according to government figures.

 

As recently as two weeks ago Mr. Flaherty said there was “no substantial concern” about the emergence of a housing bubble after meeting with private-sector economists. And in an interview with the Financial Post in late December, he said there was “no evidence” of asset bubble in real estate.

 

In an address last month on behalf of a deputy governor, Bank of Canada advisor David Wolf dismissed talk of a housing bubble in Canada as “premature,” warning that calls for higher interest rates now in an effort to temper real-estate markets would be akin to “dousing” the economic recovery with cold water.

 

However, the Bank of Canada said addressing housing excesses was best left in the hands of the Minister of Finance, through regulatory changes such as the ones announced Tuesday.

 

OTTAWA — Amid warnings about “reckless” housing speculation and overextended homebuyers, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Tuesday the federal government would make it tougher for people to get a mortgage.

 

He said at a Tuesday morning media conference that Ottawa would require all borrowers meet standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if the buyer wants a variable rate mortgage. This measure would apply to all first-time buyers. Homeowners with insured mortgages are not affected, unless they choose at a later date to extend the amortization or look to refinance.

 

Other rule changes unveiled would affect people looking to refinance their mortgages — lowering the maximum amount that can be withdrawn to 90% from 95% — and place a 20% minimum down payment for government-backed mortgage insurance on non-owner-occupied properties. This would affect people looking to buy condo units or duplexes for rental income. Previously, only a 5% down payment was required.

 

But Mr. Flaherty said the changes, to take affect April 19, were not meant to stop a possible housing bubble, as some warned was upon us unless Ottawa was prepared to act.

 

“There’s no clear evidence of a housing bubble, but we’re taking proactive, prudent and cautious steps today to help prevent one,” Mr. Flaherty said.

 

The existing home sale market has been on a tear, largely powered by historic low rates. Last April, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark policy rate to 0.25% and pledged to keep it there until this July in order to stoke economic growth.

 

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at TD Securities, said the Canadian housing market should continue on a “turbo-charge” ride until the April 19 implementation date, “then cool sharply, and then resume a more modest rate of ascent. In theory, home prices should take a mild hit immediately, as the number of Canadians capable of financing a home will dip slightly. The market’s expectation for rate hikes should be scaled back modestly as housing slows and the need to address it via monetary policy fades.”

 

Mr. Lascelles added the move will likely add to Canada’s already sterling reputation among currency and bond traders that the country “gets it” in terms of financial regulation.

 

Mr. Flaherty said the measures would “have some stabilizing effect on the housing market. And stability is a good thing.”

 

He said the changes should still make housing affordable for first-time homebuyers. His main concern, he added, was that Canadians were at risk of overextending themselves as interest rates are at historic lows and are bound to climb.

 

“This will help Canadians prepare for higher interest rates. One must always guard against the temptation take on more financial risk simply because interest rates are lower.”

 

Further, he said data emerged indicating people were engaging in “reckless speculation” by buying multiple condo units and not choosing to live in them. As a result, the Minister decided to move before the March 4 budget, when many people speculated changes might be introduced.

 

“We are encouraging people to build equity [in their home] over time, using home ownership as an effective way to save – rather than as a vehicle for quick cash,” he said.

 

The changes “will discourage the kind of reckless real estate speculation that could drive prices to unsustainable levels which does not serve Canadian homebuyers.”

 

The decision to adopt new mortgage rules emerged after nearly a week of dire warnings from prominent Canadians — such as money manager Stephen Jarislowsky and former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge — that the housing market was on the verge of possible trouble, as price increases were not sustainable and present mortgage rules were too lax.

 

Frank Techar, president of personal and commercial banking at Bank of Montreal, said the bank supports Ottawa’s moves, although adding the lender does not believe the country faces a housing bubble.

 

“Given the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent run-up in housing prices in some markets across Canada, the measures announced today are prudent,” Mr. Techar said in a statement.

 

He said the bank “for several months now” has been encouraging Canadians to stress test their financial budget using a mortgage payment based on a higher interest rate.

 

The Department of Finance in 2008 said Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. would limit amortizations to 35 years and offer loan insurance on only 95% of the loan value. The government’s housing agency had offered mortgage insurance on loans worth as much as 100% of the home value and amortization periods of as many as 40 years since 2006.

 

Homebuyers with a down payment of less than 20% of the property’s value are required to obtain government-backed insurance in exchange for financing.

 

Canadian home prices and resales will grow to records this year, boosted by low interest rates, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a report last week. Canadian new home prices rose 0.4% in December from November, the sixth straight gain, according to government figures.

 

As recently as two weeks ago Mr. Flaherty said there was “no substantial concern” about the emergence of a housing bubble after meeting with private-sector economists. And in an interview with the Financial Post in late December, he said there was “no evidence” of asset bubble in real estate.

 

In an address last month on behalf of a deputy governor, Bank of Canada advisor David Wolf dismissed talk of a housing bubble in Canada as “premature,” warning that calls for higher interest rates now in an effort to temper real-estate markets would be akin to “dousing” the economic recovery with cold water.

 

However, the Bank of Canada said addressing housing excesses was best left in the hands of the Minister of Finance, through regulatory changes such as the ones announced Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gary Marr, Financial Post 

Canadian real estate sales and prices are poised to set records this year, according to a new forecast that is bound to reignite calls in some quarters for tighter lending rules.

The Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents 100 boards across the country, said Monday it expects existing-home sales to reach 527,300, a 13.3% increase from a year ago and a 1.2% increase from the record high set in 2007.

The new-home market appears to be picking up steam, too. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said there were 186,300 starts in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, the highest level of new construction since October 2008.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has warned about rising levels of household debt, which is reaching record levels. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has suggested he is prepared to tighten mortgage requirements and continues to monitor the market.

“One of the legitimate concerns of the Finance Minister might be if you make qualifying for mortgage default insurance prematurely restrictive that it will quell housing activity even as erosion in affordability continues,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA.

There are have been some rumblings that the government is considering new rules that would require buyers who need mortgage insurance to have at least 10% down and amortize their mortgage over just 25 years instead of the current 35 years.

Anybody with less than a 20% downpayment must get mortgage insurance, if they are borrowing from a financial institution governed by the Bank Act.

Mr. Klump’s group contends the market is going to correct on its own in the second half of 2010. CREA has called for sales to drop 7.1% in 2011. The group says that while prices will rise by 5.4% in 2010, to a record high of $337,500, they will drop by 1.5% in 2011.

That view of the housing market is not out of step with some economists, who say that once interest rates rise and inventory levels increase, price increases will shrink. Year-over-year price increases in some markets, such as Toronto, have been around 20% for the past few months.

“There is still a sense of urgency to get into the market. The market will continue to be strong over the next few months,” said Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets, adding he could see new construction also touching 200,000 starts before beginning to fall.

Part of that urgency in the housing sector is being driven by the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and British Columbia on July 1. The tax would apply to real estate services and could increase the cost of buying a home by a few thousand dollars.

“It’s a factor fuelling a higher level of activity in Ontario and British Columbia,” Mr. Klump said. “What’s more Canadian than avoiding taxes?”

Elton Ash, vice-president of Re/Max of Western Canada, said he thinks the forecast put out Monday was a little optimistic for 2010, specifically the 4.2% price increase for British Columbia. “But I also think the market will be better in 2011 [than CREA].”

Mr. Ash is actually in favour of some measures to cool the market, like reducing the amortization period back to 25 years. But he wonders whether increasing the downpayment will take some people out of the housing market.

“I think leaving it at 5% would be okay,” Mr. Ash said.

Looks like a V shaped recovery afterall

Paul Vieira, Financial Post 

OTTAWA — Despite all the angst in financial markets over sovereign debt and the populist influence on banking reform proposals, the economies in the United States and Canada have chugged along the road to recovery at a pace that’s surprising even the most skeptical of analysts.

Data released Friday indicate U.S. GDP grew in the fourth quarter, an estimated 5.7%, at its fastest pace in six years. Meanwhile in Canada, data show November growth was stronger than expected, at 0.4%, while revisions to September and October figures indicate the economy was much stronger than earlier thought.

“It couldn’t have been that easy, could it?,” asked Stewart Hall, economist at HSBC Securities Canada, who in previous notes had expressed caution about a slow, uneven recovery. “Yet charting out the month over month GDP looks an awful lot like a “V” shaped recovery.”

Prior to the release of this data, markets had been consumed with worries in the aftermath of the financial crisis, be it the debt levels of industrialized countries; a slowdown in Chinese growth as Beijing looks to tighten credit conditions, and measures proposed by the U.S. White House that could scale back the size of U.S. banks, leading them in the meantime to restrict credit growth as given their uncertain future.

“One of the important lessons of the crisis was that it was often helpful to focus squarely on more comprehensible macro-cyclical dynamics than on the noise and complexity of these other areas,” Dominic Wilson, director of global macro and markets research for Goldman Sachs, said in a note this week.

“The latest focus on the banks might inadvertently restrict credit or tighten financial conditions in ways that do alter the macro path. But we think it makes sense to stay more focused on the economic news rather than shifting views too much on the basis of handicapping the twists and turns of possible legislation and the inevitable news from Washington.”

As for the nuts and bolts of the data, analysts had mixed views.

In the U.S., economists at Capital Economics argued the big estimated headline gain was largely due to inventory rebuilding – hence, there’s some skepticism that will kickstart a self-sustaining recovery.

But Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said the U.S. data suggest “the consumer, after being in hiding the previous-six quarters, re-emerged in the second-half of 2009. … This was a reflection of rising confidence that the recession was ending, the effect of government programs and a very low interest rate environment. Going forward, we expect that consumer spending will remain positive but that increases will be moderate as the hangover from the buying binge in previous years constrains activity.”

It is not just the consumer. Business investment also surprised on the strong side, with growth of 2.9% after a 5.9% drop in the previous quarter. Investment in equipment and software jumped 13.3%, well above the 1.5% expansion in the third quarter. Net exports also added to U.S. GDP, in a sign that the country is beginning capitalize on its weaker currency and stellar productivity when it comes to trade.

In Canada, the surprisingly strong November data – and upward revisions to September and October – have economists indicating that the recovery is for real, with some now penciling in growth of at least 4% for the fourth quarter, or above the Bank of Canada’s own projections. And remember, the central bank’s forecast is at the upper end of market projections.

“This is one of the most convincing signs so far that the Canadian recovery is for real, and neatly dovetails with the robust U.S. GDP result,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

 

 

 

	The Harmonized Sales Tax (also known as the new BC HST) is 12% tax applicable to most goods and services, including new homes, real estate, and property.
	The new B.C. HST 12% Tax is the combination of the Federal Goods and Services Tax (5% GST) and the Provincial Sales Tax (7% PST).
	Implementation of the BC Harmonized Sales Tax will take place on July 1, 2010.
	The BC HST is NOT a 12% real estate tax, but a provincial harmonized tax on most goods, services and consumer products including new homes.
	Currently, new BC and Vancouver homes are subject to 5% GST (federal tax) in which first time homebuyers or investors can receive GST rebates. This 5% GST will be replaced with the higher 12% B.C. Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), a 7% difference in taxes on the total purchase price of a new British Columbia home or property.
	The B.C. HST program will give partial rebates for new BC homes priced up to $400,000. The government will give these homebuyers a partial five per cent BC HST rebate on the provincial tax side which makes any new B.C. home or Vancouver property $400,000 or less no more expensive than it is today.
	Homebuyers looking to buy new Vancouver property over $400,000 will receive a maximum BC HST rebate of $20,000, but will see the purchase price above that level subject to the extra five per cent tax rate system.
	The British Columbia Harmonized Sales Tax of 12% HST is also applicable to any costs and fees associated with your property/home purchase including legal/notary fees, commissions and other closing costs.
	The BC HST transition rules are unclear at this time. It is unknown whether new Vancouver home sales contracts written before July 1, 2010 but completed after the harmonized sales tax HST launch date will be subject to the current 5% GST only or the entire 12% HST new tax.
	The cost of new home ownership will increase significantly in British Columbia due to the new BC HST tax of 12%. Not only will your new home or real estate cost more up front, but the 12% HST harmonized sales tax is also applicable to such things like strata fees, residential heating fuel, commercial rents, smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, repairs, cable TV, internet, electricity, gas, renovations, painting and other professional services.