http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/May2011/31/c9084.html

By The Associated Press

OTTAWA – A leading international think-tank says Canada will lead its peers in the G7 in economic growth during the first half of this year. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development says the outlook for economic growth has brightened for all G7 countries, with the exception of Japan .

But the improvement has been most marked in Canada and to a lesser extent the United States.

“The outlook for growth today looks significantly better than it looked a few months back,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said in a statement.

“Growth perspectives are higher all across the OECD area, and the recovery is becoming self-sustained, which means there will be less need for fiscal or monetary policy support.”

Canada is now expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, and 3.8 per cent in the current second quarter.

Much of that growth has come from the resources sector in Western Canada and continued strength in the housing market in most parts of the country.

Germany is the next strongest economy, with growth rates of 3.7 and 2.3 per cent in the two quarters.

Overall, the Paris-based organization says the G7 economies excluding Japan are set to grow at an annual rate of about three per cent in the first half of 2011, well above the organization’s previous forecast.

The growth estimates given by the OECD are the middle of a range, meaning the rates could be slightly lower or higher.

The new forecasts exclude Japan because of the uncertainty over the full cost of damage from last month’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.

The Canadian economy began the year with an impressive 0.5 per cent expansion in January that has set the stage for the strongest quarter in a year, according to Statistics Canada.

The performance was in line with market projections, but still was a mild surprise because many economists had worried of a possible payback after December’s equally robust 0.5 per cent gain in gross domestic product.

The strong back-to-back months put the economy on pace to grow by as much as 4.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, analysts have said. That’s two whole points more than the Bank of Canada’s now-dated estimate. At that growth rate, the pace of job creation should be high enough to continue pushing down the national unemployment rate, currently 7.8 per cent.

In the last year, the Canadian economy has created 322,000 jobs and has rebounded nicely from the 2008-2009 recession that battered the country’s manufacturing sector.

In some sectors of the economy, price pressures have been building, raising the prospect of higher interest rates down the road to fight inflationary pressures.

The next scheduled announcement on interest rates from the Bank of Canada is April 12, although the central bank isn’t expected to change its policy rate at that time from the current one per cent. Another announcement is scheduled for May 31, after the federal election.

Most economists believe Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will leave a hike on the sidelines until July

Rates are rising and you probably need to review your financial picture. Perhaps you need
to clear up your holiday bills or credit cards, are planning a vacation getaway, or looking ahead to a renovation project for the year.

Carefully structured – and with a timely tune-up at today’s great rates – your mortgage can be apowerful financial tool.

The time to talk is now, especially if any of the following apply:

1 You feel your mortgage rate is much higher than current rates and you could benefit by paying less interest or having a lower monthly payment. I can analyze your situation and show you the possibilities;

2 You may have to deal with a downturn in income sometime this year or you have a large expense looming;

3 You’re considering a renovation project (see reverse side about how the budget can help). Or you’re wondering if lower values and rates mean that you can afford another property (vacation or investment);

4 You’re carrying some credit card or other high-interest debt that is eating away at your monthly cash flow; or,

5 You’re worried about your retirement savings, and you’ve heard there’s a way to use a tax-deductible mortgage to build your investments.

With rising rates, it’s particularly important to give your mortgage a winter tune-up this year.

If we haven’t reviewed your situation in the last year, it’s a great idea to talk. Call or send an email at anytime!

By Derek Sankey, Postmedia News October 5, 2010

When Laura Parsons’s son, a heavy-duty mechanic, graduated with student debt like so many of his post-secondary peers, he also wanted to get into home ownership. Realizing the financial burden, he found a creative solution.

Over two years, he put money that would have gone to pay student loans into an RRSP for home ownership, which triggered a rebate that paid off half his student loan.

He put $8,000 into the RRSP and received back $4,600.

“It’s smart use of debt and understanding all the programs out there,” says Parsons.

If it’s not managed well, everyone faces the potentially crushing grip of debt.

Parsons’s son, perhaps, had one advantage: His mother is a manager for BMO Financial Group in Calgary.

Canadians are living with rising levels of debt, but there’s good debt and bad debt.

How you deal with it, financial planners say, will either allow you to move forward with your finances or run you into roadblocks.

Fifty-one per cent of Canadians say they are focusing on reducing their debt over the next year. Meanwhile, 39 per cent plan to spend less, according to the RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index.

“It’s important that Canadians feel confident and understand that managing debt is crucial to their financial success,” Andrea Bolger, a senior vice-president in personal financing products for RBC, said in the report.

Most Canadians’ largest source of debt is their mortgage, and recent talk of a housing bubble has led to some fear in the market. But Parsons says that fear is unfounded because Canadian borrowing rules and regulations are vastly different than those in the U.S. Parsons cited a recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. article that argues the housing market is stable in Canada.

“We’re nowhere near the U.S. rules that caused so many foreclosures,” Parsons says. “That didn’t exist in Canada.”

Debt needs to be actively managed, according to Calgary financial planner Debbie Ehrstien, with RBC Wealth Management.

“People really need to analyze what kind of debt they’re carrying and [determine] if it makes sense,” says Ehrstien.

Active debt is debt on which interest rate payments and other expenses associated with the debt are tax deductible, such as borrowing to invest.

Passive debt, such as credit card debt, is non-deductible and the borrower shoulders the entire cost.

Moving forward with any financial plan requires consumers to deal with their debt. Pay off high-interest debt first, understand the true cost of each kind of debt — the terms and the interest rates — and manage debt by consulting with planners and using online tools to find ways to pay it down in the most cost-effective way, says Ehrstien.

Eighty-three per cent of Canadians who develop a comprehensive financial plan feel in control of their finances, she adds.

“Most people are starting to slow down enough to ask those key questions [and] utilize the cheaper debt to pay out the more expensive debt,” says Parsons.

The Financial Planning Standards Council has launched Financial Planning Week this week, during which certified financial planners will go into the community and give “financial planning health checkups” in various community venues to raise awareness about debt management.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

By Kelly Sinoski, Vancouver Sun July 26, 2010 Comments (6)

• Story
• Photos ( 1 )

A suite built above the garage of a South Surrey home.

 PNG

METRO VANCOUVER – After decades of debate, Surrey has decided to permit homeowners to have one secondary suite in all single-family homes in the city, following an Ipsos Reid telephone poll in which 63 per cent of those surveyed supported the idea.

The move, which received unanimous approval at city council Monday night, brings Surrey’s secondary suite policy into line with that of most municipalities in Metro Vancouver. Delta is expected to go ahead with a similar policy.

Up until now, Surrey has allowed secondary suites only in predetermined zones in the city, mostly in Newton. Yet the city has its share of illegal suites, which are estimated to number as high as 19,000.

Surrey Coun. Judy Villeneuve, who chairs the city’s social planning committee, said the illegal suites have provided affordable housing in the city, as well as mortgage help for new homeowners.

Legalizing the suites, she said, will allow homeowners to offer accommodation to extended families or renters, while ensuring they provide parking spaces and pay their fair share for utilities and taxes.

Homes with secondary suites result in added costs to the city’s water, sewer, and garbage services.

“Hardly any rental housing has been built in Surrey in the past 15 years,” Villeneuve said. “Our goal is to is to provide lots of [different] housing so everyone can live … and have a roof over their heads.”

According to the Ipsos Reid poll, 63 per cent of 1,200 people polled in a random telephone survey said they would support the move, mainly because it would provide more rental housing, make home ownership more affordable and increase density in neighbourhoods without changing the area’s character.

But support varied according to location, with 65 per cent in favour in the Newton/Fleetwood area compared with just 57 per cent in south Surrey.

The main reasons for opposing the move are related to parking issues, general congestion/crowding, traffic congestion and concerns about equitable payment of property taxes and utility charges.

City staff recommended that council endorse the policy subject to conditions, which included prohibiting multiple suites in a house, requiring the registered owner of a home with a secondary suite to live on the premises and requiring homes to provide parking and pay appropriate utility fees to offset the added costs of city services.

The random telephone survey, conducted between June 28 and July 6, has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. A web-based survey, which polled more than 1,500 people on the city’s website from June 28 to July 1, found levels of support were lower, with 55 per cent in favour.

ksinoski@vancouversun.com

Jeremy Torobin Globe and Mail  

Mark Carney is taking a cautious approach to raising interest rates, weighing Canada’s powerful economic rebound against the uncertainty of an “increasingly uneven” recovery across the globe.

The Bank of Canada Governor became the first central banker in the Group of Seven to raise borrowing costs since the financial crisis and recession, increasing the benchmark overnight rate Tuesday by one-quarter of a percentage point to a still exceptionally low 0.5 per cent.

Policy makers will keep an eye on Europe’s troubles, and won’t move more aggressively than they see fit, the Bank of Canada suggested, even though the economy is rebounding rapidly and inflation will likely exceed its 2-per-cent target this year. Much like in 2008 when the U.S. financial crisis pulled Canada into recession, the country’s economic health depends in large part on policy makers in other countries successfully containing homemade problems.

“Interest rates are incredibly low, given the strength of the domestic economy, but the global story is where it’s at right now,” Eric Lascelles, chief economic strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said in an interview. “The level of uncertainty suggests there’s not a lot of confidence in the forecasts.’’ The open-ended nature of the announcement sparked a fall in the Canadian dollar and yields on two-year government bonds as investors pulled back their bets on what they had expected might be a series of uninterrupted rate hikes going forward.

By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press

OTTAWA – The Canadian dollar plunged to its lowest level in eight months before recovering Tuesday, sending a clear signal that Europe’s debt crisis has the potential to reach across the Atlantic and impact Canada’s mending economy.

The loonie has lost about eight per cent of its value over the last month in reaction to fears in global equity and financial markets about the lasting imprint of government debt, and now a new risk — the threat of war on the Korean peninsula.

Over the weekend, the Bank of Spain had to bail out Cajasur — the second savings bank in that country to receive public money since March 2009. On Monday, four other Spanish savings banks announced plans to merge amid concerns over solvency in the sector.

Tension in Asia has also risen since last week after North Korea was accused of the sinking in March of a South Korean warship. Seoul has called for sanctions against the North.

The Canadian dollar closed down 0.94 of a cent at 93.46 cents US on Tuesday after bouncing off a low of 92.18 cents US earlier in the day.

The loonie is not alone in seeing its value eroded. Other commodity currencies have also taken a hit in the flight to dependable and liquid U.S. Treasury bills.

The short-term impact on the Canadian economy of frightened financial markets and a loonie closer to 90 cents than parity, ironically, may be mostly positive.

A weaker dollar will give a much-needed boost to manufacturers and exporters who prosper whenever they can sell their products abroad with a currency discount.

And the unsettling of financial markets has caused real interest rates to soften for mortgages and other loans. Many Canadian banks have dropped posted rates on five-year mortgages to below six per cent.

As a result, prospects that Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will start hiking rates next Tuesday have gone from a virtual sure thing a month ago to a coin-flip today.

Export Development Canada’s chief economist, Peter Hall, welcomed the fact that the loonie’s wings have been clipped, saying that a dollar at par had the potential to take two or three points off economic growth next year — the equivalent of about $30 billion to $45 billion in output.

But the longer term implications may be that Canada’s recovery won’t go as smoothly as many had hoped. The loonie is acting as a proxy for the global economy: when the Canadian dollar is down, it means so are prospects for global expansion, say economists.

“Everything and anything that happens in the world affects Canada,” said TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond, noting Canada’s dependence on trade and on the prices of commodities it sells to the rest of the world.

The longer term outlook is that many governments, not just the poor cousins of Europe, will soon need to deal with debt burdens that cannot be sustained, and the ensuing clampdown on spending will stall the recovery.

Several economists, including David Rosenberg of Gluskin and Sheff, said the risk of a second downturn in key economies, including the United States as Washington withdraws stimulus spending, has become very real. Much like in 2008-09, Canada would become collateral damage, they said.

“For a small, open (and) commodity-sensitive economy whose entire recession in 2009 was imported from abroad and south of the border, the answer is yes,” Rosenberg said when asked whether a second dip is possible.

That still remains a minority view, although the TD’s Drummond puts the risk at about 20 per cent.

The key question is whether the European crisis is an overblown temporary crisis, or the precursor of government debt woes in the United Kingdom, the United States and other larger economies.

Scotiabank portfolio manager Andrew Pyle said he believes the fears over Europe will blow over in a matter of weeks, which will cause both oil prices and the loonie to recover to previous levels.

“I think people will be surprised to see how quickly that will happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us back to parity in July,” he said.

But it’s the longer-term prospects that most worries Drummond. He says the perception that the situation will stabilize if the bailout of Greece and other countries works, or that things will implode if the bailout doesn’t work, is simplistic.

“Those countries (with large debts) aren’t getting out of this any time soon . . . easy bailout or not,” he said.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/25052010/2/biz-finance-loonie-s-plunge-signals-long-term-risk-canadian.html

Emily Mathieu Business Reporter Toronto Star

Higher than expected rates of inflation and reports of record breaking retail sales means interest rate hikes will likely go ahead, according to a top economist with BMO Capital Markets. But domestic strength might not be enough to justify increases if the upheaval in global markets continues, said Porter.

“If the (Bank of Canada’s) decision was based solely on domestic factors, then this would be no questions asked, no debate,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist.

The central bank has long predicted rates would rise on June 1, but Porter said doubt over the future of global economic stability could cause them to go off course.

“It would take a very brave central bank indeed, I think, to raise interest rates in the face of the turmoil we are seeing in global financial markets right now.”

According to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index, the core index advanced 1.9 per cent during the 12 months leading up to April, following a 1.7 per cent increase in March.

The boost in April was due mainly to a rise in prices for the purchase of passenger vehicles, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, property taxes, and food purchased from restaurants, the report showed.

The seasonally adjusted monthly core index rose 0.2 per cent in April, following a 0.3 per cent decline in March.

Consumer prices across the country rose 1.8 per cent in the 12 months leading up to April, following a 1.4 per cent increase in March. In Ontario, prices rose 2.2 per cent.

Porter said BMO has no plans to alter their position that rates will rise on June 1, but said that position could change if market upheaval continues into next week.

“If Canada were an island there would be no debate,” said Porter. “There is a very compelling domestic case for higher interest rates.”

Statistics Canada reported a 2.1 per cent increase in retail sales dollars in March, to $37 billion. Porter said earlier reports had predicted sales would be close to flat. “Instead we get one of the best gains on record.”

National energy prices rose 9.8 per cent between April and the same time the previous year, following a 5.8 per cent increase during the 12 months between March 2010 and the same time the previous year. Excluding the increase in energy the index rose 1.1 per cent, compared with a 1 per cent increase in March.

For the sixth month in a row, gas prices exerted the strongest upward pressure on the index. In April, Canadians paid 16.3 per cent more at the pump than they did the same time the previous year. That change follows a 17.2 per cent increase between March of this year and the same time in 2009.

Natural gas prices were up 3.3 per cent in April than the same time the previous year. Between March 2010 and the same time the previous year prices had dropped 22.4 per cent.

The cost of transportation was up 6.2 per cent in the 12 months to April and consumers paid a 5.6 per cent more for insurance premiums in April compared to the previous year.

Housing costs were up 0.8 per cent, after declining 0.7 per cent in March, with household utilities exerting the most upward pressure. The mortgage cost index fell 6.1 per cent, the report showed.

Food prices were up 1 per cent, following a 1.3 per cent increase in March. The 1 per cent rise, largely related to prices for food purchased in restaurants, was the smallest since March 2008.

Health care prices rose 3.3 per cent, the report showed. http://www.thestar.com/business/article/812567–rate-hike-not-guaranteed

By Claire Sibonney Reuters   The negative news has led many to question whether Bank of Canada will start raising rates from their current record lows on June 1.

Yields on overnight index swaps, which trade based on expectations for the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate, have fallen in recent weeks and on Wednesday indicated just a 51 percent chance of a June 1 rate increase.

On April 20, when the bank removed its conditional pledge to keep interest rates on hold until the end of June, the market priced in more than a 90 percent likelihood.

Currencies tend to strengthen as interest rates rise as higher rates often attract capital flows.

“Even with the ongoing uncertainty, the Canadian situation warrants a small move toward more normal rates so I wouldn’t unwind the forecast just yet,” said Craig Wright, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada., whose bank was the last primary dealer to join the call for a June 1 move.

“We’re really just looking at a 25 basis point adjustment … tapping of the brakes rather than slamming them on.”

Globe and Mail Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Andrew Willis

Bond traders are still expecting the Bank of Canada to raise short term interest rates on June 1, but the move is no longer the sure bet it was a few short weeks ago.

Credit markets are currently putting a 84 per cent probability on a 25 basis point hike in overnight rates after the central bank meeting in June, according to a report that TD Waterhouse published late Tuesday on BAX sentiment, a reflection of what the futures market is predicting. BAX sentiment put a 100 per cent probability on a hike prior to the most recent Greek credit crisis, and European financial bailout.

BAX sentiment puts a 94 per cent probability on another 25 basis point rise in rates at the July 20 Bank of Canada meeting